Draft Week Baby!! - Thread 3.0

[AnonEmouse]

Originally Posted by skinsfaninok

I think Carolina is ready to roll with Sam, Denver has Lock / Teddy. Both teams have way bigger needs especially Denver. I just don't see it

This was my thinking when I posted earlier. Put it this way, Top 2 picks are all but nailed on. 49ers wouldn't trade up unless shooting for QB, so Lance, Fields or Jones are gone at #3. Atl can still go QB but just about everyone is saying they'll take Pitts (and I don't see them ready to move on from Ryan anyway). Of arguably QB needy teams from #5 to #18, I only see Den, Car, NE and maybe LV as candidates, but with these moves and other needs I think that list comes down to Car (Darnold now, AN Other in 2-3?), NE (anyone to take over from Cam soon as) as possible and LV on the outside. IF NE trade up they have to be taking QB, and if they trade with Car then the latter is definitely not taking QB. Eagles, Vikes and Giants might take QB as a future prospect but I doubt it; no noises to that effect and all have bigger needs.

So while it wouldn't surprise me greatly if 5 QB's are gone by pick 11, I wouldn't be surprised either if one of those 3 were available at 19. Again, would you take one of them if they were available?

[AnonEmouse]

But then if the Saints do trade up to top 10....

[skinsfaninok]

Originally Posted by AnonEmouse

This was my thinking when I posted earlier. Put it this way, Top 2 picks are all but nailed on. 49ers wouldn't trade up unless shooting for QB, so Lance, Fields or Jones are gone at #3. Atl can still go QB but just about everyone is saying they'll take Pitts (and I don't see them ready to move on from Ryan anyway). Of arguably QB needy teams from #5 to #18, I only see Den, Car, NE and maybe LV as candidates, but with these moves and other needs I think that list comes down to Car (Darnold now, AN Other in 2-3?), NE (anyone to take over from Cam soon as) as possible and LV on the outside. IF NE trade up they have to be taking QB, and if they trade with Car then the latter is definitely not taking QB. Eagles, Vikes and Giants might take QB as a future prospect but I doubt it; no noises to that effect and all have bigger needs.

So while it wouldn't surprise me greatly if 5 QB's are gone by pick 11, I wouldn't be surprised either if one of those 3 were available at 19. Again, would you take one of them if they were available?

I would take Mac Jones if he was there at 19, I would move up to like 13-16 to take Fields or Lance. I'm not saying we should take a QB but if one of those 3 are around that spot, you def have to consider it

[Scalper]

Originally Posted by AnonEmouse

This was my thinking when I posted earlier. Put it this way, Top 2 picks are all but nailed on. 49ers wouldn't trade up unless shooting for QB, so Lance, Fields or Jones are gone at #3. Atl can still go QB but just about everyone is saying they'll take Pitts (and I don't see them ready to move on from Ryan anyway). Of arguably QB needy teams from #5 to #18, I only see Den, Car, NE and maybe LV as candidates, but with these moves and other needs I think that list comes down to Car (Darnold now, AN Other in 2-3?), NE (anyone to take over from Cam soon as) as possible and LV on the outside. IF NE trade up they have to be taking QB, and if they trade with Car then the latter is definitely not taking QB. Eagles, Vikes and Giants might take QB as a future prospect but I doubt it; no noises to that effect and all have bigger needs.

So while it wouldn't surprise me greatly if 5 QB's are gone by pick 11, I wouldn't be surprised either if one of those 3 were available at 19. Again, would you take one of them if they were available?

I think historically more teams than you think reach for QBs. You can have an awesome TE, WR, whatever, but without a franchise QB it doesn't matter. And I think teams have that moment of clarity (or perhaps delusion) when a QB is sitting there. Coaches know they won't be employed long without a franchise QB usually.

I think first round picks, at least top-20, should be elite athletes. Every year players fall to 20-30 that end up being perennial studs or HOFers. Rodgers for example went 24, J. Campbell to us one pick later. No one was sitting there at that time saying Campbell perennial backup at best and Rodgers one of top-20 best to ever play the game at QB. Great example of what a difference one draft slot can make, and how useless fads at time of draft are.

I don't think a QB drops to 19. Simply because if one hits 15 or later trading up becomes sane for teams--even maybe us. I would spend the #19 on Lance in a heartbeat. He has the strongest arm in this class, I don't care about the running, mentally a risk, but he has elite talent where it matters most for a QB--throwing, especially deep balls and touch on them. Jones to me a much harder proposition, because he lacks elite athleticism, but P. Manning, E. Manning, Brees, even Aikman Montana, similar kind of QB and they all won SBs. QB is so much mental--and throwing--yet everyone seems to get seduced by running. Pocket QBs win long term.

What is our goal here? Feel good playoff runs where we get torched by the real contenders? That' a win given what a stooge THE DAN has been and will always be, but is that all want, or is the goal higher winning multiple SBs? In the salary cap era no team has won multiple SBs without a franchise QB. We can draft an awesome LT, awesome LB, stud FS, yadder, yadder, but history is emphatic that it leads to at the absolute most 1 SB, and that is only if the entire team is STACKED with a mediocre QB. Point is, with the long view in mind, if you see a guy with franchise QB potential at #19, it is not absurd to pull the trigger, risking one 1st round pick different than trading the farm ala RGIII and Niners this year. It is very hard to be a long term contender making trades like that because even if the QB is a stud--and they usually aren't in such trades historically--you have minimal cheap young elite talent for 2-3 years. It all comes down to talent evaluation. There is a long term pro bowler and even HOFer that we can take it #19 or someone else will before end of first round, but who is it? It could be the pro bowl or HOFer from late 1st round is a CB or WR, the positions expected to fall, or a guy like JOK who is an athletic freak but tweener.

Who is qualified to assess QB talent--the single hardest calculation scouting wise in all of pro sports. Mayhew, who just left 49ers, who busted on the seeming can't miss Garop everyone was drooling over just a few years ago, and did such a bad job of finding another serviceable option that SF just traded the farm for QB? Hurney, who never won a SB and made some very dubious FA and draft decisions, and got QB wrong, along with RR, choosing Newton, Mr. Me, who took all the credit but then kicked everyone under the bus when the going got tough, and epitomizes everything horrible about the infatuation with running QBs, never learning to read Ds, never perfecting his mechanics or accuracy, especially deep, and still even late in career having to run because he can't read or throw accurate, so that now he is always hurt. . . I see nothing in our FO that indicates any especial brilliance in talent evaluation, at QB especially. I don't blame RR for bringing back all his butt buddies because only a complete bungling tit would trust THE DAN and RR knows his guys will tell him if the meddling begins. The only guy we had who might have that rare talent to scout QBs we sent to the Falcons to replace with retreads.

So I'm not at all confident that we'll get QB right, signing Fitz-average terrible. We should have given Heinecke the reps and had him compete against 2 other rookies we draft, cut Allen, no Fitz. Then we either find a guy who can be franchise QB, or draft top-5, get QB, and are set long term. But no coach will make that decision, only a GM will, but we have a coach not a GM because of THE DAN. We BOTCHED the most important position with short-term thinking.

Lance is accurate and a cannon, if he had it all, he'd be gone top-5, but he has 2 of the 3 attributes of great pocket passers, accuracy and strong arm, with the mental part being the huge question. Given how hard it is to find franchise QBs, a risk I take, but he won't be there.

You think Vikes honestly believe Cousins, Captain underthrow every deep pass and check down even if open deep, is leading them to a SB? Dream on. Receivers demanded trades from MN solely to escape Cousins. Many coaches GMs are willing to risk a single pick to solve QB, unless they emphatically have one of the 5-8 unquestionable franchise QBs already on roster. There is always more interest in QBs than we think because deep in their hearts, coaches and GMs know that a great QB keeps them employed a long time. Just look at Belicheat and Brady, Belicheat thoroughly mediocre now that he can't cheat and doesn't have stud QB, and every other coach is the same. Shanny an O genius, but doesn't matter with Garop hosing it up and being made of glass (he and Scherff belong on the all unbreakable team). McVay most brilliant O mind in game, doesn't matter with a bungling tit like Geoff, and even he botched and extended him. And cetera. A great QB makes everyone else look way, way better than they are, OL, receivers, coaches, GMs, etc. Insiders all know it.

So if a QB drops who you think has even a 67% chance of being franchise--you NEVER know for certain--fuck yeah you draft him. If he's sitting at 15, hell yeah you trade a 3rd to move up and get him, but no ridiculous RGIII like trades. Etc. The fundamental problem is we have NO ONE in our FO who has ever proven they know how to identify a franchise QB who can win the big dance, and we ran the only evaluator who might have been that guy out of town. So in all probability, whatever we decide at QB will be wrong. I don't want that, but it is what reason suggests. History also suggests 2 of QBs in first round, maybe 3, will be busts, and several taken later will be better, but again, there is nothing in our FO track record to suggest they can identify that guy. This sucks, but it is the truth. We hired Hurney because he's RR's butt buddy, and Mayhew because he's black to fend off THE DAN's PR problems. Again, I don't like these realities, but they are realities. Polian has a big name, but he took a SB contending team and made it a 2-14 team and was fired, not all his fault but significantly, and the Jaguars have obviously been a dumpster fire. Polian's mismanagement got the Colts Luck though, but Griggs to dumb to invest in OL. Maybe none of these guys suck, but there is nothing to suggest any of them can win the big one as a FO, or pick a franchise QB.

I hope we get it right, but not holding my breath.

[Monkeydad]

[punch it in]

Originally Posted by monkeydad

lol

[skinsfaninok]

lmao

[skinsfaninok]

The
@49ers
have offered the
@Packers
the 3rd overall pick in this year's draft, plus other picks and a number of players from their current roster including Garoppolo
for Aaron Rodgers.
The Packers turned them down.
First reported by
@PAOnTheMic
and confirmed by others.

[vallin21]

Originally Posted by Monkeydad

Lol

[Monkeydad]

Originally Posted by skinsfaninok

The
@49ers
have offered the
@Packers
the 3rd overall pick in this year's draft, plus other picks and a number of players from their current roster including Garoppolo
for Aaron Rodgers.
The Packers turned them down.
First reported by
@PAOnTheMic
and confirmed by others.

Worth the shot by SF, I give them credit for trying it. Assuming GB has the confidence in Love that they've said they had, it might have been worth considering, and Garaoppolo could still be flipped for more picks. I would've considered it. Aaron's not happy there and will likely leave in FA when he has the chance. They drafted Love for a reason.

GB could draft Pitts or Sewell at #3...trade Jimmy for another 2nd or 3rd, get a solid #2 WR behind Adams with their own pick...build up the defense...they could make some massive upgrades and move on to the Love era at the same time.

Holding onto Rodgers at all costs, who wants out, while they've drafted his replacement already, isn't a solid plan. They're just letting Love rot on the bench.

They may not get a better offer than that, it was pretty huge.

[Monkeydad]

Eagles looking for trade-up partner to get Surtain, after trading to move down.

These are the same geniuses who took Jalen Reagor over Justin Jefferson last year.


https://www.nbcsports.com/edge/colle...ick-surtain-jr


https://twitter.com/JFowlerESPN/stat...s-trades-moves

[Dlyne8r]

Originally Posted by Monkeydad

OMG bandwidth on the internet just tanked and SpaceX crew now in life threatening conditions.

[Chief X_Phackter]

Originally Posted by skinsfaninok

The
@49ers
have offered the
@Packers
the 3rd overall pick in this year's draft, plus other picks and a number of players from their current roster including Garoppolo
for Aaron Rodgers.
The Packers turned them down.
First reported by
@PAOnTheMic
and confirmed by others.

Does this mean they are not as comfortable with QBs 3-5 as they have let on?

[Chico23231]

Originally Posted by skinsfaninok

The
@49ers
have offered the
@Packers
the 3rd overall pick in this year's draft, plus other picks and a number of players from their current roster including Garoppolo
for Aaron Rodgers.
The Packers turned them down.
First reported by
@PAOnTheMic
and confirmed by others.

This is a bad look for the 49ers...I mean, a Vinny bad look. You don’t go all the way to 3 only then to pivot. This is an org not working together

[MTK]

If you have the chance to shoot the moon you take it. What's the harm in making an offer for one of the top QBs in the game?