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05-12-2020, 07:54 PM
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#556 | |
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The Starter
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Beaverdam Virginia
Age: 63
Posts: 2,137
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Re: Coronavirus (non political)
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05-12-2020, 08:10 PM
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#557 |
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Gamebreaker
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 13,902
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Re: Coronavirus (non political)
This will have to end soon, solitary confinement is considerd an inhuman form of imprisonment. I know it's a joke but does have a little truth in it.
__________________
....DISCLAIMER: All of my posts/threads are my expressed typed opinion and the reader is not to assume these comments are absolute fact, law, or truth unless otherwise stated in said post/thread. |
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05-13-2020, 10:26 AM
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#558 | |
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The Starter
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Beaverdam Virginia
Age: 63
Posts: 2,137
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Re: Coronavirus (non political)
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05-13-2020, 12:45 PM
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#559 | |
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Gamebreaker
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 13,902
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Re: Coronavirus (non political)
Quote:
__________________
....DISCLAIMER: All of my posts/threads are my expressed typed opinion and the reader is not to assume these comments are absolute fact, law, or truth unless otherwise stated in said post/thread. |
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05-13-2020, 07:51 PM
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#560 |
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Special Teams
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 67
Posts: 322
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Re: Coronavirus (non political)
I run the corona stats daily: here's what we've got for the counties as of May 13th:
Columns as follows: mdRegions are DCPl: DC area, Balt: Baltimore area, LwES: Lower Eastern Shore, UpES: Upper... South and West are obvious: Cases/million #cases estPopulation mdRegion countyName 11077 10072 909308 DCPl Prince George's 7152 738 103195 LwES Wicomico 6919 7283 1052567 DCPl Montgomery 6346 123 19383 UpES Kent 5769 3476 602495 Balt Baltimore City 5315 177 33304 UpES Caroline 5093 1302 255648 DCPl Frederick 5022 4160 828431 Balt Baltimore 4817 778 161503 South Charles 4507 2596 576031 Balt Anne Arundel 3892 1258 323196 Balt Howard 3533 595 168429 Balt Carroll 3188 102 31998 LwES Dorchester 2636 271 102826 UpES Cecil 2477 629 253956 Balt Harford 2412 125 51823 LwES Worcester 2326 214 92003 South Calvert 2254 254 112664 South St. Mary's County 2099 149 70975 West Allegany 2070 104 50251 UpES Queen Anne's 1986 51 25675 LwES Somerset 1902 287 150926 West Washington 1677 62 36968 UpES Talbot 206 6 29163 West Garrett More data to follow by zip code. |
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05-13-2020, 08:01 PM
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#561 |
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Special Teams
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 67
Posts: 322
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Re: Coronavirus (non political)
Here's data by zip codes (note: they don't report if less than 9 cases). These, like the last are in order from worst to best. Zip codes where they haven't reported cases are excluded:
The columns are Cases/million zip population #cases 27261 20783 45559 1242 * 24402 21649 2131 52 21205 20737 21787 462 * 20093 20722 6022 121 19050 20784 30184 575 * 18622 20903 26206 488 16496 20782 32553 537 * 16043 20860 2805 45 15803 20706 42397 670 * 15138 20781 11626 176 14805 20710 9794 145 14530 20705 27873 405 * 12953 20712 9496 123 12232 20902 52484 642 12074 20785 37601 454 11919 21607 839 10 11292 20769 7439 84 11001 20708 27089 298 10955 20877 38885 426 10707 21224 50433 540 10673 20906 70174 749 10417 21640 1440 15 10374 20724 17736 184 10229 20707 32556 333 10060 20794 16601 167 10045 20745 28472 286 9871 20904 57035 563 9849 21133 32489 320 9326 20886 34100 318 9257 20770 24629 228 * 9046 20622 6301 57 9028 20735 39323 355 9011 20716 22083 199 9009 21804 40402 364 8962 21703 36265 325 8962 20901 36154 324 8812 20747 39946 352 8780 21702 42028 369 8774 20746 27241 239 8666 20743 39234 340 8575 20912 26239 225 8491 21403 30855 262 8373 21228 48133 403 8247 21215 58448 482 8045 20763 2113 17 7971 20748 38011 303 7914 20720 23502 186 7898 21801 30007 237 7831 21911 11238 88 7749 20721 29811 231 7738 21207 47687 369 7694 21050 18586 143 7676 20772 44948 345 7585 20744 54453 413 7319 20879 27871 204 7263 20774 46812 340 7163 21668 1815 13 7162 20910 42868 307 7090 21632 6065 43 7073 20613 13855 98 6842 21229 47644 326 6833 21208 36441 249 6817 20623 2934 20 6802 21237 30286 206 6790 21205 14580 99 6753 21826 5331 36 6722 21054 11009 74 6715 21401 37081 249 6662 21244 35724 238 6587 20607 11234 74 6511 20853 31178 203 6508 21701 37185 242 6401 20905 18123 116 6298 21227 33822 213 6223 20851 15106 94 6216 21651 2735 17 6210 20603 31401 195 6081 21620 13155 80 6058 20695 7924 48 6042 21032 8276 50 5813 20866 16171 94 5809 20740 31848 185 ** 5805 20895 19637 114 5756 20723 35091 202 5671 20876 28919 164 5647 21678 1771 10 5638 21771 29265 165 5589 21239 31133 174 5532 21851 6869 38 5508 21206 51561 284 5496 21220 40211 221 5482 21045 39946 219 5474 21202 21010 115 5432 21090 10494 57 5427 20814 28930 157 5423 21225 33927 184 5410 20872 12940 70 5405 20861 1665 9 5374 21012 21772 117 5373 20874 61045 328 5369 20602 26078 140 5365 21061 54059 290 5305 20715 26768 142 5198 21231 16160 84 5085 21704 16518 84 4957 21222 54873 272 4941 21076 17204 85 4940 20711 7085 35 4926 21117 58673 289 4848 20601 26401 128 4826 21213 31701 153 4825 21794 2280 11 4802 21060 34360 165 4770 21218 49271 235 4656 21234 68938 321 4647 21075 32496 151 4625 20646 20974 97 4499 21223 23560 106 4464 21230 34947 156 4380 21157 36985 162 4332 21136 34164 148 4309 20764 4177 18 4304 20733 2788 12 4293 20815 30512 131 4258 20616 6106 26 4218 21770 5453 23 4208 20854 49194 207 4198 20841 10481 44 4181 21037 21524 90 4125 20855 14302 59 4027 21043 46932 189 4014 21214 21177 85 4008 20662 2994 12 3976 21204 21628 86 3954 21716 5311 21 3917 20850 51568 202 3858 21613 17109 66 3855 21209 28015 108 3842 20677 2603 10 3837 21793 10163 39 3817 20817 36681 140 3789 21216 31409 119 3785 20678 12418 47 3774 20852 46904 177 3770 21217 34487 130 3717 20882 13450 50 3631 21158 20929 76 3592 20832 26448 95 3565 21046 15988 57 3521 21040 24424 86 3520 20637 5682 20 3503 21221 43110 151 3499 20871 20008 70 3405 21144 35240 120 3356 21226 6257 21 3355 21030 25637 86 3326 21114 26759 89 3307 21014 35681 118 3293 21044 44034 145 3251 21875 6460 21 3220 21738 3416 11 3181 20878 64126 204 3159 21643 6015 19 3141 21774 12734 40 3094 20640 10018 31 3093 21201 17136 53 3022 21784 38390 116 3000 20634 7334 22 2972 20639 15139 45 2957 21108 18938 56 2947 21750 3732 11 2905 21085 16177 47 2856 20664 3501 10 2845 21122 60461 172 2832 21029 10595 30 2818 21502 42583 120 2698 21713 10379 28 2688 20816 16367 44 2688 21755 5581 15 2685 21286 20483 55 2618 21655 4966 13 2596 20714 4622 12 2592 21236 38573 100 2590 21034 3475 9 2570 20837 6225 16 2558 21093 37917 97 2546 21219 9427 24 2531 21863 4741 12 2489 21212 33342 83 2489 21811 23701 59 2457 21409 20352 50 2453 21104 5300 13 2428 21146 28006 68 2423 20736 9491 23 2421 20653 23546 57 2380 20732 9664 23 2365 21629 9726 23 2319 21776 5607 13 2315 20754 6910 16 2312 21113 33736 78 2309 21853 11693 27 2306 21797 8672 20 2249 21788 11563 26 2239 21758 4912 11 2207 21619 5891 13 2195 21727 6833 15 2156 21639 4639 10 2055 21740 61803 127 2048 21617 10741 22 2046 21601 23458 48 2034 21087 5407 11 1978 21084 7583 15 1963 21787 10186 20 1941 21128 14425 28 1935 20833 7750 15 1919 21638 5210 10 1915 21161 5221 10 1884 21817 4777 9 1859 21102 11299 21 1841 20659 23358 43 1816 21163 7158 13 1779 21211 16299 29 1773 21783 9022 16 1767 21009 29997 53 1758 21001 24453 43 1740 20657 18963 33 1715 21921 44896 77 1692 21154 5911 10 1667 21017 6597 11 1644 21754 6689 11 1644 21015 29192 48 1627 21742 33180 54 1614 21074 14872 24 1571 21047 12096 19 1537 21042 40980 63 1486 20685 6731 10 1433 21048 10465 15 1428 21904 7005 10 1389 20636 11523 16 1375 21666 12363 17 1356 21901 17698 24 1341 21131 7456 10 1312 21842 10669 14 1299 21795 9236 12 1277 20650 14096 18 1195 21532 15062 18 1187 21035 8423 10 1117 21210 15213 17 1105 21078 18097 20 971 20755 10297 10 961 20619 13533 13 894 21769 11189 10 I live in Berwyn Heights, zip 20740. I have put a double star '**' next to our zip and a single star '*' for the zip codes that share a boundary with us. You can tell that we are waiting to be overwhelmed. Our neighbors are worse than New Jersey and New York. |
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05-13-2020, 08:15 PM
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#562 |
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Special Teams
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 67
Posts: 322
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Re: Coronavirus (non political)
I hope that I haven't overwhelmed you with this information. It's just that nobody reports it, just number of cases and no context in terms of population size.
Several other notes from my analyses of the situation. Latinos are carrying this infection in Maryland. Their increase in total cases (by percent) is about double that for whites and blacks (which is usually very close to identical.) Unfortunately, I can verify that this makes sense because we live in a heavily latino area (the terrible zip codes are, I believe, latino majority) and we see/hear them with their parties, walking in groups of multiple families together, and hear them racing in the streets. My wife (who is from Mexico) feels embarrassed by their behavior. Today the number of cases for latinos passed the number of cases for whites in the state for the first time, in spite of the fact that their population is only about one fifth of that of the whites. Second, it appears that the states in our "corridor" (all the top states with only one interloper, i.e., Mass., Conn., Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and D.C.) along with quite a number of other states, are almost not reporting the recovereds. A very rough calculation extrapolating from infections and recoveries in Germany (which hasn't had much reinfection) seems to imply that the actual number of "active cases" should be at most half the total number of cases. This is based on case numbers by date both for Germany and for the states in question. I hope to run a better regression analysis in the next few days. Note: I ranked the states by reported active cases over population, a stat that I haven't seen anybody give. I am trying to answer the question, if I see someone in the street, what is the chance that they are currently infected? |
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05-13-2020, 09:40 PM
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#563 | |
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Living Legend
Join Date: Aug 2008
Age: 57
Posts: 21,331
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Re: Coronavirus (non political)
Quote:
Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk |
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05-13-2020, 11:34 PM
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#564 |
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Special Teams
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 67
Posts: 322
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Re: Coronavirus (non political)
These are NOT available on the state website or the Coronavirus stats page from Worldometer.
In particular, the zip code information for the state site report the number of cases, not the proportion of the population that is infected (i.e. cases per million). For example, there may be two zip codes that have 100 cases. The state site reports that. But one zip may have 1,000 people in it and the other 40,000. In the first, 10% of the people have it, but in the second only 0.25% have it. This is NOT reported on the state site, and I feel it is a much more important stat than what they give. The same holds for the county information. For the zip codes, for example, the population sizes in Maryland vary from 10 to 70,174. Needless to say, I don't expect that the zip code with 10 people will have 9 cases any time soon. (They also don't report nursing home cases by zip, and I don't feel like having to sort it all out. There was an outlying zip code (high infection rate and not in P.G.) and I investigated. It turned out that 70% of their cases at that time were due to an infected nursing home in the zip code.) About 1/4 of all cases in Maryland are due to infections of residents or staff of elder care facilities. (Most of these are of the residents.) I have not adjusted for these in ranking counties as I don't have time. (I have no need to go into nursing homes right now, so infections in the residents shouldn't impact my chance of getting the virus if I go to that area and avoid the nursing homes.) Second: Worldometer has no reporting of active cases per million, only total cases per million. Your chance of getting infected in a given place have to do with ACTIVE cases per million, not TOTAL cases per million. If they're dead or recovered they won't infect you (unless it's a place like Mexico which declares them cured after about 4 days.) So I did these stats because they are NOT available from the Maryland website. I also have not reported on the stats I have from the Worldometer site, which, once again, fails to report active cases per (million) population, only TOTAL cases per (million) population. I work from the data provided by these 2 sites and some population information I got from other places (or backed into for the Worldometer site, using their info on total cases and total cases per million) and update (for my family) daily, trying to figure out the safest places to shop for food and deposit checks to the bank. As far as fixing the format, I've already got my hands full trying to teach my 6 kids who are at home all day, as well as trying to get back in shape (lose 30 lbs.) and figuring out how to get errands done living in the middle of a disaster zone, with 6 of the worst 12 zip codes in Maryland as our neighbors. (I'm 63 and a half and so have to be very careful.) As far as formatting, while I have a doctorate in Computer Science and have won an international math competition, I am very much on the theoretical side of things and don't know how to make things look pretty quickly. (My 18-year-old could, as he is very good at javascript, but I can never seem to get him to do what I ask. Go figure!) Anyway, I put this info up so people could make informed decisions on where to avoid right now, and because this info is not readily available. (I have better things to do than copy what others have done.) Finally, I found that while the Worldometer site reports what the states say are the active cases, a lot of the "active" cases should now be recovered. So I reported my estimate about the number of active cases, based on Germany's example, since Germany seems to both (1) declare people recovered, and (2) not have had a recurrence due to people being declared recovered too quickly. The very quick back-of-the-envelope estimate is that the number of active cases should be about half the number of total cases for all the states from Massachusetts down to D.C. (Mass, RI, Conn, NY, NJ, Pa, Del, Md, DC) based on the historical progression of the number of cases. Currently, Maryland is reporting 88% of their total cases as being "active" cases. This is a sham. (Since none of the definitions of "active" case are consistent with the reported numbers, I should probably report this number as "probable active cases", whereas the state's numbers may be appropriately dubbed, "number of people who have been infected who have a non-zero (albeit small) chance of being infectious".) Interestingly, in terms of "active cases per population", we get a different list of worst states than "total cases per population". On the left is the (beginning of the) order for Worldometer by total cases/million and on the right is active cases/million (statistic not offered on Worldometer) (1) New York ; (1)New Jersey ! (2) New Jersey ; (2) New York (3) Massachusetts ; (3) Rhode Island (4) Rhode Island ; (4) Connecticut (5) Connecticut ; (5) DC (6) DC ; (6) Massachusetts (7) Delaware ; (7) Illinois (8) Louisiana (26th on other side) ; (8) Maryland (9) Illinois ; (9) Nebraska (13 on other side) (10) Maryland ; (10) Pennsylvania (11) Pennsylvania ; (11) Delaware Note that Louisiana goes from the Worldometer total cases per million (population) of 6,782 to (Worldometer unavailable) active cases per million of 1,521. Many countries also move dramatically once we categorize by active cases/million as opposed to total cases/million. The US is 5th in active cases per million (behind San Marino, Vatican, Qatar, and Singapore) and the is the 3rd worst with population over a million. Here are a few countries with reported total cases per million and active cases per million (not reported) US: 4,255 vs. 3,107 Belgium: 4,640 vs. 2,699 Andorra: 9,810 vs. 1,838 France: 2,730 vs. 1,431 Italy: 3,659 vs. 1,344 Spain: 5,764 vs. 1,329 Ireland: 4,707 vs. 940 Luxembourg: 6,221 vs. 291 Germany: 2,067 vs. 218 Austria: 1,772 vs. 132 Iceland: 5,278 vs. 44 Note that 6 of these are worse than the US in total cases per population, but none is worse in active cases per population. Anyway, if this isn't helping anybody I don't need to put it up. But if you want some stats I may be able to get them. I'll at least try to get a better estimate of the actual "infective" cases for Maryland if I have time. |
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05-14-2020, 11:48 AM
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#565 |
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Living Legend
Join Date: Aug 2008
Age: 57
Posts: 21,331
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Re: Coronavirus (non political)
again, your brick wall of text makes takeaways from it fairly useless. I am not even sure what you are trying to say. Two questions, hopefully without blocks of texts in your answers:
https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/ I know the point you are trying to get across must be important to you, and I am just trying to understand what it is. |
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05-14-2020, 02:56 PM
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#566 |
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Special Teams
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 67
Posts: 322
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Re: Coronavirus (non political)
Reduced as briefly as possible (sort of;-) (I have a hard time keeping the scientist in me under control.)
(1) Avoid PG in general if possible. Our infection rates have been astronomical. I give info by zip so if you need to go somewhere you know where it is particularly bad. For example, near the University of Maryland (where I live) we live in a small bubble (one zip code) of "reasonableness" (5 per thousand) in the middle of almost all the worst areas of the state (up to 28 per thousand, worse than any state or country in the world.) So the voluminous zip code info is to help people understand in more detail where to avoid. Both county and zip info are reported in cases per million, the same as Worldometer. So PG has passed 11 cases per thousand. (For cases per thousand, take the first column and divide by 1,000). (2) Not stated above. For the moment, especially avoid latinos that you don't know. They are one of the main reasons that the state's infection rate has not stabilized. While the numbers from yesterday were outliers (2 new white cases, 30 black, 209 latino), today's increase fits with the usual: 1.6+/-0.1% new cases for whites/blacks (i.e. lockstep) and 5.1% latino (i.e. 2 to 3 times the white/black rate). We live in a heavily latino area and we see groups of them frequently ignoring all the advice and walking in large groups and having parties (and forget the masks). (Mostly young*) latinos now constitute more cases than whites even though their population in the state is 1/5th of the white population. From the conversations that my (Mexican) wife has with her sister in Mexico, the Mexican people (there) are much more responsible (in spite of their president) than the latinos here. (He's telling them "just live your daily lives; the epidemic will just take care of itself"; in response, the individual neighborhoods and states are taking action. But he's cooking the books on the epidemic anyways.**) (3) The state, along with a lot of others, pretty much never reports recoveries. Supposedly about 88% of the people who have ever gotten the virus here are still considered "active cases". You can never have the curve go down if nobody is ever declared "recovered" unless you start murdering the people who have it. So, judging from what I saw from Germany's stats, I tried to do a "most conservative" case of what our stats would be if we followed their general trend line. (I chose them since they do report recoveries and their criterion is good since "recovereds" don't seem to generate much further infection.) So my back of the envelope calculation is as follows: Active cases = total cases today - 0.8 * total cases 14 days ago. This makes the assumption that (1) All cases in the last 2 weeks are active, and (2) 20% of the cases at least 14 days ago are still lingering. These assumptions are quite conservative but generate active case counts that are about half of what the state is reporting. (For point (2) above the active case counts would be black: 5,071 cases; white: 3,531; latino: 4,943) Hopefully this isn't too long a read. I'm (overly) comfortable with numbers, and don't know when to stop sometimes. *"Mostly young" is derived from the fact that the death rate for latinos is much lower than for other groups. **Look at the Worldometer report. For Mexico, the number of "active cases" has stayed around 8,000 for a while, but they're getting about 2,000 new cases per day, so supposedly everybody "recovers" (or dies) in 4 days, and those few "active cases" are generating new cases at a rate of 25% per day! |
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05-14-2020, 04:27 PM
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#567 |
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Warpath Hall of Fame
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 34,293
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Re: Coronavirus (non political)
https://www.dailywire.com/news/wisco...-at-home-order
Wisconsin Bars Flooded With Patrons Hours After State Supreme Court Strikes Down Stay-At-Home Order Complete retard level. This is why I’m not gonna be able to drink at a bar or brewery for awhile because of folks like this practicing pure stupidity instead Social distancing. Why I can’t have nice things
__________________
My pronouns: King/Your ruler He Gets Us |
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05-14-2020, 04:36 PM
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#568 | |
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\m/
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: NY
Age: 51
Posts: 99,410
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Re: Coronavirus (non political)
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05-14-2020, 05:13 PM
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#569 |
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Living Legend
Join Date: Aug 2008
Age: 57
Posts: 21,331
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Re: Coronavirus (non political)
Mike, I guess as you are a scientist, I am asking what hypothesis you are stating. If I read it right then these would be how I would state your hypotheses:
#1 PG County has the largest section of the outbreak, and should be avoided. #2 Latinos in Md have been less willing to follow the stay at home order as it is meant to be followed, and therefore non-Latinos should avoid contact with Latinos to reduce the chance of community spread from that specific group. #3 The Actual Recovered numbers are significantly higher than the reported based on the number of new cases and assuming a 14 to 21 day infection time. If those are your hypotheses, I generally agree with 1 and 3. Although I think #1 is skewed by the major outbreaks in nursing homes in PG and Riderwood in Montgomery which is actually right on the border of PG if you could somehow pull out those flash points that happened early on, you might see a different statistical variance. But I don't really think that is possible. I think you are reading the data from number 2 backwards though. I do believe it is significant that the Latino population is less likely to abide by the stay at home order (I admit this is from my walks in the park and the numbers of groups that I see that would be considered larger that 10 or not practicing social distancing so it is not a scientific number). But if we accept the untested assumption that Latinos are less likely to abide by the order, the expected numbers would be an expected higher infection and mortality rate. We see just the opposite in Md. Using your numbers (black: 5,071 cases; white: 3,531; latino: 4,943) Latino and Black active cases are basically equivalent and given the ethnic makeup of PG county, that is not completely shocking. In fact the low number of deaths in the Latino group (black:708; white: 731; latino: 137) should actually have us looking at what factors they have incorporated communally that may have a better effectiveness then stay at home orders alone. |
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05-14-2020, 06:44 PM
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#570 |
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Gamebreaker
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 13,902
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Re: Coronavirus (non political)
__________________
....DISCLAIMER: All of my posts/threads are my expressed typed opinion and the reader is not to assume these comments are absolute fact, law, or truth unless otherwise stated in said post/thread. |
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