Fantasy Football 2012 Thread

[scowan]

Originally Posted by Chico23231

Im thinking about moving the metrics of our pay league. Extra point: 5 points, field goals over 40 yards: 10 point, under 40 yards: 7 points

Its time Rob Bironas is taken first overall in a fantasy draft...where stud Kickers rule the league

LOL Chico, kicker is my last pick every year, because there is a high probability that I will be dropping him anyway for another kicker by Week 2. Kickers=lottery ticket, a total crap shoot. Basically find a team that can move the ball, BUT not score TDs and you have found a team with your kicker. Many FGs.

[Chico23231]

I laugh to myself anytime a kicker is taken before the last round. Thats why things have to change.

[scowan]

In a 15 round draft, which is what I'm in every year, my kicker is selected in round 15. Now Defense might be round 12 or 13, but even Defenses are late for me, because in a 10 team league, that I'm in, no one keeps a backup D, so there are 22 Defenses out there that you can claim off the waiver wire ever week to play matchups. All that being said, somehow I ended up picking up the 49ers D at somepoint last season and I kept them until the end. But I don't think I drafted them, they were a waiver wire claim.

[mredskins]

Originally Posted by scowan

LOL Chico, kicker is my last pick every year, because there is a high probability that I will be dropping him anyway for another kicker by Week 2. Kickers=lottery ticket, a total crap shoot. Basically find a team that can move the ball, BUT not score TDs and you have found a team with your kicker. Many FGs.

True for the most part but I pick Sebastien in a late round over say Hankerson or some other reach player. Every potential starter on your team is a priority.

Plus why jeopardize your waiver position every week playing musical chairs with your kicker? Not to mention if you have a transaction fee as well.

DST and Kicker are always over looked and that is where ground can be made up if you draft intelligently. Especially DST.

I have always used a VBD system for calculating my players before the draft. It is a no joke system that literally takes several hours to forecast out. I have a excel sheet from 2011 if anyone wants to see it; I can email it to Matty; I don't know how to post a excel workbook on here.

It is a real eye opening experiencing that shows you exactly what a guy is worth to you in your league.

How the system works:

How does VBD work? It's all about establishing that "baseline" player. Calculating the difference between each player's absolute fantasy point total and the point total of a baseline player at the same position gives us a relative number, which can then be compared across positions. Logically, this allows us to look at past-year performances, determining which positions tended to justify higher draft slots. After all, if we only judged by absolute point totals, we'd all be drafting quarterbacks in the first round, since for example in 2011, eight of the top 10 highest raw fantasy point totals were scored by QBs.
Intelligent folks have different ways of thinking about how to determine baselines for each position. Some like to think of baseline as "replacement-level," as we sometimes do in baseball, and in a 10-team league, for example, that leads us to the No. 11 QB as our baseline (since the top 10 would presumably start for each of the 10 fantasy squads). Frank DuPont (who wrote this e-book) figures baseline players by adding up the total number of man-games your fantasy league requires to fill out a full season at each position, then calculating the average number of players at each position it usually takes to produce that many man-games. FootballGuys prefers a "Top 100" methodology, whereby we establish how many players at each position tend to get drafted in the overall top 100 of your draft, and use that number as our baseline for each position. And there are several other approaches, often created by smart fantasy owners who simply tinker with stats inside their own leagues.
Personally, I tend toward the "10 Round" theory (which, to be fair, is simply an offshoot of the "Top 100" methodology): I look at the number of players at each position that typically gets drafted in the first 10 rounds of any league's draft, and however many QBs that is, that's my baseline QB. However many RBs that is, that's my baseline RB. And so on. So if you're in a 10-team league, you'd look at the top 100 players drafted. If you're in a 12-teamer, you'd look at the top 120. Why do I feel 10 rounds works well? To some extent, it's simply trial and error (me Excel pretty good). But philosophically, for me 10 rounds is the point where fantasy starting lineups are set, the top rookies and hyped sleepers we hope could work their way into being fantasy starters have been drafted, and we're now looking for backup (or "replacement") type players. Hey, I said it's kludgy, right?
The truth is, though, that any infighting about establishing the best baseline methodology feels a bit like a Talmudic inquisition, where the principals spend time parsing semicolons. I've run most conceptions of VBD baselines for multiple years' worth of data, and the ranks that result usually look quite similar. No matter how you do your baseline, there's room for you under my big VBD tent, because our results are going to bear far more than a passing resemblance to one another.

[Monksdown]

Originally Posted by mredskins

True for the most part but I pick Sebastien in a late round over say Hankerson or some other reach player. Every potential starter on your team is a priority.

Plus why jeopardize your waiver position every week playing musical chairs with your kicker? Not to mention if you have a transaction fee as well.

DST and Kicker are always over looked and that is where ground can be made up if you draft intelligently. Especially DST.

I have always used a VBD system for calculating my players before the draft. It is a no joke system that literally takes several hours to forecast out. I have a excel sheet from 2011 if anyone wants to see it; I can email it to Matty; I don't know how to post a excel workbook on here.

It is a real eye opening experiencing that shows you exactly what a guy is worth to you in your league.

How the system works:

How does VBD work? It's all about establishing that "baseline" player. Calculating the difference between each player's absolute fantasy point total and the point total of a baseline player at the same position gives us a relative number, which can then be compared across positions. Logically, this allows us to look at past-year performances, determining which positions tended to justify higher draft slots. After all, if we only judged by absolute point totals, we'd all be drafting quarterbacks in the first round, since for example in 2011, eight of the top 10 highest raw fantasy point totals were scored by QBs.
Intelligent folks have different ways of thinking about how to determine baselines for each position. Some like to think of baseline as "replacement-level," as we sometimes do in baseball, and in a 10-team league, for example, that leads us to the No. 11 QB as our baseline (since the top 10 would presumably start for each of the 10 fantasy squads). Frank DuPont (who wrote this e-book) figures baseline players by adding up the total number of man-games your fantasy league requires to fill out a full season at each position, then calculating the average number of players at each position it usually takes to produce that many man-games. FootballGuys prefers a "Top 100" methodology, whereby we establish how many players at each position tend to get drafted in the overall top 100 of your draft, and use that number as our baseline for each position. And there are several other approaches, often created by smart fantasy owners who simply tinker with stats inside their own leagues.
Personally, I tend toward the "10 Round" theory (which, to be fair, is simply an offshoot of the "Top 100" methodology): I look at the number of players at each position that typically gets drafted in the first 10 rounds of any league's draft, and however many QBs that is, that's my baseline QB. However many RBs that is, that's my baseline RB. And so on. So if you're in a 10-team league, you'd look at the top 100 players drafted. If you're in a 12-teamer, you'd look at the top 120. Why do I feel 10 rounds works well? To some extent, it's simply trial and error (me Excel pretty good). But philosophically, for me 10 rounds is the point where fantasy starting lineups are set, the top rookies and hyped sleepers we hope could work their way into being fantasy starters have been drafted, and we're now looking for backup (or "replacement") type players. Hey, I said it's kludgy, right?
The truth is, though, that any infighting about establishing the best baseline methodology feels a bit like a Talmudic inquisition, where the principals spend time parsing semicolons. I've run most conceptions of VBD baselines for multiple years' worth of data, and the ranks that result usually look quite similar. No matter how you do your baseline, there's room for you under my big VBD tent, because our results are going to bear far more than a passing resemblance to one another.

I've been working on my MasterSpreadsheet for about 2 weeks. Every day tweaking it and adjusting small things. For example, this week, you are the 3rd receiver for the Seahawks. Etc.

I would love to see your VBD spreadsheet from last year. Post it on Google Docs and make it public. Then send the link to us. only those with the link can open it. pretty please.

[MonkFan4Life]

In a new 10 man pay league and this is what I drafted.
QB-Jay Cutler, Josh Freeman
RB- Arian Foster, Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Jamal Stewart
WR- Stevie Johnson, Steve Smith (car), Dez Bryant, Mike Williams (tam), Kendall Wright
TE- Fred Davis,Tony Gonzalez, C. Fleener
DEF- San Fran, Pitt, Wash

[Monkeydad]

Originally Posted by MonkFan4Life

In a new 10 man pay league and this is what I drafted.
QB-Jay Cutler, Josh Freeman
RB- Arian Foster, Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Jamal Stewart
WR- Stevie Johnson, Steve Smith (car), Dez Bryant, Mike Williams (tam), Kendall Wright
TE- Fred Davis,Tony Gonzalez, C. Fleener
DEF- San Fran, Pitt, Wash

I'd start Freeman if I were you.

With V-Jax, he's going to have a good year.

GREAT pick with Fleener. He's going to be Luck's Dallas Clark.

How'd you load up at RB like that? You have 3 potential 1st-round picks, although MJD is down a little this year. Was it a Keeper league?

Why three defenses? I'd drop Pittsburgh. They're getting old, due for a decline. If you need a kicker, drop a D for one.


Overall, very solid team except for Dez Bryant.

[Chico23231]

Originally Posted by MonkFan4Life

In a new 10 man pay league and this is what I drafted.
QB-Jay Cutler, Josh Freeman
RB- Arian Foster, Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Jamal Stewart
WR- Stevie Johnson, Steve Smith (car), Dez Bryant, Mike Williams (tam), Kendall Wright
TE- Fred Davis,Tony Gonzalez, C. Fleener
DEF- San Fran, Pitt, Wash

So you drafted 1st or 2nd and after taking Foster first you took Chris Johnson and on the turn MJD? First, both these guys lasted this long? Why wouldnt you take a WR at that point?

[BigHairedAristocrat]

Originally Posted by Chico23231

So you drafted 1st or 2nd and after taking Foster first you took Chris Johnson and on the turn MJD? First, both these guys lasted this long? Why wouldnt you take a WR at that point?

he didnt take a WR because he's not an idiot. WR is ridiculously deep this year. Theres not much of a performance dip between guys you can get in the 8th-12th rounds and guys youlll get in the 3rd and 4th. (this is assumping non-ppr). On the other hand, the vast majority of teams have two RBs who split carries pretty evenly, and some (like washington, new england, and new orleans) get great RB production (but from 3-4 guys, none of whom are worth owning on your fantasy team). Generally speaking, you'll want your QB, TE, and atleast 3 RBs before you even think of drafting a WR. your team will be much stronger for it.

[los panda]

i don't even draft dst or k. i pick dst on a weekly match-up basis

i don't feel like looking this up right now, but if anyone knows off the top of their head - what did the top few kickers avg per game vs what did the bottom few kickers avg per game. i'll be surprised if it's more than 5 pts

[MonkFan4Life]

Originally Posted by Chico23231

So you drafted 1st or 2nd and after taking Foster first you took Chris Johnson and on the turn MJD? First, both these guys lasted this long? Why wouldnt you take a WR at that point?

I was 3rd in a 10 man draft. Took Foster with my 1st pick. Johnson in the second and MJD when my pick came back around. I wasn't super high on and WR when MJD was available because I have the RB/WR flex and I can start all 3 RB's.

A guy offered me Cam Newton and Fred Jackson for Arian Foster and Jay Cutler

[Chico23231]

Originally Posted by MonkFan4Life

I was 3rd in a 10 man draft. Took Foster with my 1st pick. Johnson in the second and MJD when my pick came back around. I wasn't super high on and WR when MJD was available because I have the RB/WR flex and I can start all 3 RB's.

A guy offered me Cam Newton and Fred Jackson for Arian Foster and Jay Cutler

Fred Jackson getting up there in age and coming off injury...id stay with Foster and Jay, but tempting to say the least.

Because you can start all 3, hell yeah nice. I assumed you could only start 2 RBs. Solid team. And like Blunt Hair said, WR is deep. Solid team, my first draft is tomorrow night. I think Jay reunited with Marshall could be just as effective as Stafford to M. Tron this year.

[MonkFan4Life]

I certainly hope so

[TheMalcolmConnection]

Originally Posted by Chico23231

I wouldnt have changed it, different lil different strategy keeps it fresh. TD to 3 or 4 point only for QBs when throwing the ball. Every person who scores should get 6 imo.

I dunno. For that I would think I was punishing something that was more impressive than a one yard run. We'll see how it goes this year, but I always thought it was BS when a single player beat you who didn't even rush for fifty yards.

[scowan]

Ok what source/website/magazine do you guys trust as a starting point to building your cheat sheet for your drafts? My draft is in a week and I need to start putting my thoughts on paper. I never take one source and just run with it, but I do usually try to find one that is pretty close to my thoughts and then make adjustments from there. I'm not drafting againt any of you guys so please share some of your thoughts.

I've used fftoday.com and fftoolbox.com some in the past and not the ones everyone else will use like ESPN/YAHOO/NFL.COM