All things Middle East related

[HailGreen28]

Originally Posted by NC_Skins

Well, seeing as they'll have inspectors crawling up their ass, I doubt this seriously. Even if this did happen, Iran knows it would end up in the deal being nullified and military strikes happening. Iran is doing this so it can kick start it's economy. This alone is why Israel wants to stop Iran. It isn't about nuclear weapons because his own Mossad contradicted Netanyahu on Iran's capability. Netanyahu (and Saudi Arabia)doesn't want Iran becoming a economic force in the region. This is what this has been about the entire time. Economics.

I would think if it were about economics, sanctions would have driven Iran to agree to dismantle their nuke program, to haul stuff off like Libya rather than just put it in storage.

I heard energy production for Iran would be helped a lot by nuke plants, but they could just build more refineries for that.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by NC_Skins

Well, seeing as they'll have inspectors crawling up their ass, I doubt this seriously. Even if this did happen, Iran knows it would end up in the deal being nullified and military strikes happening. Iran is doing this so it can kick start it's economy. This alone is why Israel wants to stop Iran. It isn't about nuclear weapons because his own Mossad contradicted Netanyahu on Iran's capability. Netanyahu (and Saudi Arabia)doesn't want Iran becoming a economic force in the region. This is what this has been about the entire time. Economics.

UN inspectors crawling up a closed society's ass...

Iran knows what would happen if the did produce a bomb...

Pretty funny stuff.
The outline of the outline of what might be agreed to already gives Iran the ability to put places off limits to inspectors so you can bet any ratifiable treaty will have at least some loopholes that Iran will take advantage of.

Iran knows what North Korea, Israel, Pakistan and India know, which is if they produce nuclear bombs no country is going to make them give it back.

All that said Iran doesn't want war with us, just like China and Russia don't, what they eachdo want is to control their region(s), and if we get in the way of that then they may decide to see exactly how much we are willing to give up to maintain influence.

Personally, Pres. Obama comes off much like Neville Chamberlain before WWII, or Wilson after WWI. So intent on denying other countries real political and cultural natures, in order to be seen as bringing peace to the globe, that they sign bad/dumb treaties and leave the world a more unstable place.



Sent from my S6 Edge

[HailGreen28]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

UN inspectors crawling up a closed society's ass...

Iran knows what would happen if the did produce a bomb...

Pretty funny stuff.
The outline of the outline of what might be agreed to already gives Iran the ability to put places off limits to inspectors so you can bet any ratifiable treaty will have at least some loopholes that Iran will take advantage of.

Iran knows what North Korea, Israel, Pakistan and India know, which is if they produce nuclear bombs no country is going to make them give it back.

All that said Iran doesn't want war with us, just like China and Russia don't, what they eachdo want is to control their region(s), and if we get in the way of that then they may decide to see exactly how much we are willing to give up to maintain influence.

Personally, Pres. Obama comes off much like Neville Chamberlain before WWII, or Wilson after WWI. So intent on denying other countries real political and cultural natures, in order to be seen as bringing peace to the globe, that they sign bad/dumb treaties and leave the world a more unstable place.



Sent from my S6 Edge

Well I'm thinking that Iran sees that giving up nukes didn't work out well for the leaders of Ukraine and Libya. Course if the Iranians do care about economics, maybe tough enough sanctions to turn them into North Korea would be a deterrent? It would be nice to get agreement from the EU and Russia to do that if needed, if this is an option.

[Hog1]

I am shocked there is no more outrage over this....deal. I cannot figure any way Iran is not raining Nuc's on us and Israel at their first opportunity.
After all this is not the "Peace Loving Muslim" we are talking about. This is the American beheading, hostage taking, Death to all Iraeli's...Death to all Americans we are talking about.
Oh...I forgot, Worlds foremost sponsor of terrorism....Peace Loving Muslims.
And we are going to arm them with 150 Billion in sanction relief (which is probably the only reason they are at the bargaining table at all)
Iran Inspections in 24 Days? Not Even Close - WSJ
Oh and Inspectors up their ass??? Maybe after 6 months of BS delays or so in which time they will have had plenty of time to hide the whole F...n country.
Appears to be ....quite the Coup
No worries they have always proven to be a trustworthy partner....right?

[That Guy]

Originally Posted by Hog1

I am shocked there is no more outrage over this....deal. I cannot figure any way Iran is not raining Nuc's on us and Israel at their first opportunity.
After all this is not the "Peace Loving Muslim" we are talking about. This is the American beheading, hostage taking, Death to all Iraeli's...Death to all Americans we are talking about.
Oh...I forgot, Worlds foremost sponsor of terrorism....Peace Loving Muslims.
And we are going to arm them with 150 Billion in sanction relief (which is probably the only reason they are at the bargaining table at all)
Iran Inspections in 24 Days? Not Even Close - WSJ
Oh and Inspectors up their ass??? Maybe after 6 months of BS delays or so in which time they will have had plenty of time to hide the whole F...n country.
Appears to be ....quite the Coup
No worries they have always proven to be a trustworthy partner....right?

what's your solution then? nuke them first? the cold war ended without causing the end of the world, cause people decided that talking was better than nuclear holocaust. and honestly it could have ended quite a bit sooner. hap (arnold, USAF) was calling for pre-emptive nuclear war the whole time... i'm glad we decided not to go down that path.

maybe it works, maybe it doesn't, but disengagement rarely yeilds good results in the long run. their leadership is not stupid and is a generally rational actor, even though their aims don't really match up with ours very often. (ie, they know launching nukes without testing at a country with interception capabilities is probably a bad idea).

we were the ones that destroyed their democracy and installed a puppet government that had a pretty terrible human rights record (which is a big part of why it was overthrown). so the argument that they'll bomb us is kind of glass house thinking (though they're definitely acted against us with militias/training in iraq etc). the best deterrent is using isreali/saudi arabia as watch dogs and missile shield sites, since they aren't very hip to iran in any way.

israel does have a legitimate concern though, since they'd be in close range.

[Hog1]

I am not sure I know the answer...But
negotiating with terrorists isn't it. And BTW was it not Obama who stated "I will not negotiate with terrorists"? That policy must have changed.
I think you can be assured the sanctions were working and probably the only thing that had the Peace loving (Death to all Israeli's and American's) muslims at the negotiating table to start with.
Are you really trying to compare the Psychotic beliefs and desires of the Peace Loving Jihadists with the Soviet Union?
Oh and check out the last paragraph of the article I posted. It states in spite of Kennedy's efforts in the sixties and the hard line we took with the Russians, within a few years they eclipsed the US in numbers of Nuc's (from a huge deficit fwiw).
But back to your original Q.
Not sure I know what the answer is....
BUT putting in the hands of.....providing the funding....the path......the way and means for the Planets most heinous terrorist country to DO what they wish (at every possible juncture state...Death to the West....Death to all Americans...Death to all Israeli's) seems like the height of insanity.
Oh wait, I promise we'll be good........--Iran

Iranian Leader Encourages 'Death to America' Chants After Nuclear Deal :: The Investigative Project on Terrorism
Iranian leader Ali Khamanei reiterated the "Death to America" and "Death to Israel" slogans and called the United States a state sponsor of terrorism in two public addresses marking the conclusion of the Eid Al-Fitr holiday, the Middle East Monitoring and Research Institute (MEMRI) reports.

Last week, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani claimed that the world superpowers recognized a nuclear Iran immediately after the announcement of a deal regarding Iran's nuclear weapons program. He also boasted that Iran will maintain over 6,000 centrifuges.

It is important to emphasize that issues related to Iran's human rights record and global sponsorship of terrorism were not part of the negotiations. Many experts and critics of the deal believe that sanction relief and the lifting of weapons embargoes will enable the Islamic Republic to enhance its regional hegemonic ambitions and international terrorist activity.

[That Guy]

Are you really trying to compare the Psychotic beliefs and desires of the Peace Loving Jihadists with the Soviet Union?

you mean the soviets that are currently occupying a foreign country while assassinating anyone that publicly challenges their leader?

and yes they overuse death to america the same way we overuse terrorist. but training militias isn't nearly as dire as nuclear war. The question is what's the best way to avoid that in the long term, engagement or hostility. in the most extreme it ends either with nukes or with both sides becoming uninterested in using them. we disagree with russia on a LOT of things, but neither side is looking at tossing warhead around, even though america is more hated by the russian population now than ever (due to their state owned "economic warfare" media coverage and all that).

[Hog1]

Your example is incomparable.
We as humans do silly things. As an example we as humans frequently want to extend to the wild animal world "human type" emotion. Not a good plan, as they do not have them. That is what frequently gets someone injured or killed by not exercising a modicum of caution when dealing with a wild creature. They're not like us.
That is the case between Iran and the USA.....they're not like us. We cannot extend to them our system of beliefs or assume they will react or believe as we do. Political correctness might suggest otherwise but reality does not.
These people have no human rights policies the civilized world would recognize. No basic freedoms such as "speech" , "Religion"
The countries administration has been responsible for thousands of deaths for such crimes as "having a different opinion".
Safety Tip: Don't get caught selling condoms...good for a public flogging
The combination of Islamic and Sharia practice is...Nothing an American would recognize, nor would anyone else since the Dark Ages (except an Iranian). Torture and murder are commonplace for things like a differing political opinion......Fornication. I would not do well with that one.
Sooooooo, NO. Saying we and they would "lose interest" in launching Nukes. I do not believe we have an interest in such behavior....ever.
BUT...they're not like us According their continuous lamentations of "Death to the West" (and of course Israel) they would have no such restraints as do we.....launch and go to party with the virgins
Your example is incomparable. We made a ridiculous deal that will get ugly. We should expect no different from the World's Sponsor of Terrorism

[That Guy]

they do have a different system of beliefs, but you've got to understand, not dying in a nuclear fire is a pretty universal. We're not assuming they'll bow to our way of thinking, but be guided by self interest in not being invaded or blown up.

also you're assuming because they follow islam, they're not rational actors, which just hasn't been the case, even though their agenda definitely doesn't match our own.

it's neo-cold war paranoia. I'm not suggesting we trust them without verification or that this is guaranteed to work. but replace iran with blacks in your last post, and think about how small minded it would be.

what's the other option? let them continue to develop nukes unchecked? invade them? (i hope you're ready to serve, cause we'd probably be looking at a draft). close your eyes and hope everything works out? I mean, if there's an alternate path to engagement of some kind, i'd love to hear it.

[Hog1]

Originally Posted by That Guy

they do have a different system of beliefs, but you've got to understand, not dying in a nuclear fire is a pretty universal. We're not assuming they'll bow to our way of thinking, but be guided by self interest in not being invaded or blown up.

also you're assuming because they follow islam, they're not rational actors, which just hasn't been the case, even though their agenda definitely doesn't match our own.

it's neo-cold war paranoia. I'm not suggesting we trust them without verification or that this is guaranteed to work. but replace iran with blacks in your last post, and think about how small minded it would be.

what's the other option? let them continue to develop nukes unchecked? invade them? (i hope you're ready to serve, cause we'd probably be looking at a draft). close your eyes and hope everything works out? I mean, if there's an alternate path to engagement of some kind, i'd love to hear it.

Totally unconcerned with different system of beliefs as there are many nations on this planet different from us and we coexist nicely. Concerned only with their track record, actions and Promises...(like Death to America like being chanted on Parliament floor during Peace and Nuclear talks)....lol
Iranian parliament chants ‘Death to America’
Check out Jihadism......You just get dead. THEY get the Virgins. Oh yea, this is from a people who routinely strap bombs to woman and children to kill hundreds of innocents to advance their peace loving Muslim message.
What does this PC racist BS have to do with anything?
What would I do?....doesn't matter. Throwing our hands in the air giving up is certainly not the answer. Obama made an amazing deal....if your Iranian.
BTW....these are the same Peace Loving rational acting Muslims that STILL hold 4 American hostages?

[That Guy]

you're arguing emotionally, so this is kinda becoming circular and pointless.

you're also basically saying all muslims are evil and out to kill us, and assuming engagement is giving up. you can't have any rational discussion with such sweeping generalizations and false premises.

being iranian doesn't make you subhuman, not every muslim believes in blowing themselves up or destroying the world. I mean I could point out how the bible says that divorced women who remarry should be stoned to death, that rape is generally considered the women's fault etc, but that doesn't mean that every christian believes and practices that (though there are more violent muslims right now, part of that is due to weak national identity/government control (egypt/the old iraq have/had less issues with crazies, religion is filling the power gap the way christianity did in the middle ages, when christians were, well, extremely violent). they'd probably point to gitmo and our leaders talk about invasion the way you're harping on death to america.

you've got to realize that some issues are more important than others and not cut off the big issue over relatively minor ones.

I also think you don't understand rational actors. iran as a state acts in it's own self interest, ie it doesn't want nukes dropped on it's soil or it's people starving. it has nothing to do with those 4 prisoners, that's the micro scale. they also aren't going to be america's puppet, we already tried that, it didn't work out.

anyways, I can't/won't try to fix you're raging xenophobia, but basically you're point is "i hate iranians, i hate this deal, i have no idea what i want to see, rage rage rage" and I don't exactly know what I'm supposed to do with that, so.

[JoeRedskin]

Here's the thing, I think there's truth to both points.

TG - rational actors aside, you are "westerpormorphizing" the Iranian state. On the international scale, sure, there is the basic survival instinct, but, at the cultural level, this is a society that acts, rationalizes, and, has core values very different from our own. I am not saying all Muslims hate the US or want to blow us up BUT the current Iranian state is not a democracy in the western sense but rather a theocratic democracy - you are free to vote for whichever of the imams' candidates you like best. It is founded on principles that are fundamentally opposed to true individual liberty. Ultimately, Iran is an anti-democratic state that has very different method of determining its international priorities than countries with western style democracies. Further, when a state believes divine inspiration plays a direct role in its policy making decisions, as Iran does, it is simple blindness or naiveté' to think they will be bound by western liberal democratic concepts of what a rational actor would do on the international stage. At its core, a theocracy simply has a different definition of "rational" than that of true democracies.

Secondly, and in addition to the inherent irrationality of theocratic states, there is a real and tangible hatred of America in Iran. Sure, individual citizens may have no desire to strap on a bomb and blow up Americans, but, on a cultural state level, America has never ceased to be "The Great Satan" to Iran and Iranians. I have spoken to several individuals who have been there, and they are consistent in their descriptions of the deep and abiding, cultural dislike for and distrust of America by Iranians as a whole (yes, I know it is anecdotal).

Any dealings with the Iranian state must recognize these two basic truths: (1) theocracies are not bound by traditional western concepts of "rational actors"; and (2) the cultural and state level hatred existing in Iran for America and our culture is a real and guiding force in their international actions. Failure to recognize these truths and pretending Iran is just another rational state actor on the international stage is naïve or obtuse.

But ... as TG said, if not engagement, then what? Hog1 - I do not trust that they will abide by any treaty provisions, but, unless we are willing to nuke or invade (which I, personally, am not), our only option is to talk and keep a foot in the door. The alternative is to let them stockpile and proliferate absolutely unchecked.

I am sure they are playing us with this treaty, we should do our best to return the favor.

[Hog1]

Fundamentally Obama has stated the deal is necessary because the trade sanctions won't keep Iran from developing and implementing nukes....but the punishment for breaking deal is...what? Oh yea, more trade sanctions....wtf?
FWIW, I would endorse talking and a "deal" because I would not nuke their ass nor do I advocate BOTG for now. The deal has potential but O F'd us with the absurd loopholes conducive for launchwear production.
24day-6 month notice for inspection?
Bullshit, unlimited inspection without notice. We can start with some reality like this and build on it. In it's current form it is more useless garbage from O which may well be cost us, the West and Israel at the hands of the Peace Loving Muslims......

[That Guy]

Originally Posted by Hog1

Fundamentally Obama has stated the deal is necessary because the trade sanctions won't keep Iran from developing and implementing nukes....but the punishment for breaking deal is...what? Oh yea, more trade sanctions....wtf?
FWIW, I would endorse talking and a "deal" because I would not nuke their ass nor do I advocate BOTG for now. The deal has potential but O F'd us with the absurd loopholes conducive for launchwear production.
24day-6 month notice for inspection?
Bullshit, unlimited inspection without notice. We can start with some reality like this and build on it. In it's current form it is more useless garbage from O which may well be cost us, the West and Israel at the hands of the Peace Loving Muslims......

read the speech from today, it addresses these things. we've got international backing from a lot of nations for these sanctions specifically to halt advancement on nuclear weapons. if we back out, those sanctions fall apart and it makes it harder to get people to agree the next time we want to push something else (whether iran related or not) because they'll be less trusting of our ability to keep our commitments.

also, the inspection window is 24 hours to 24 days, no country is going to allow unlimited zero notice inspections.

also the gulf states military budgets FAR exceed iran's.

it's all been addressed pretty much point by point.

[That Guy]

Originally Posted by JoeRedskin

Here's the thing, I think there's truth to both points.

TG - rational actors aside, you are "westerpormorphizing" the Iranian state.

I really don't think I am. I've been around the area, and i'm not saying there aren't people there that hate us, or that they don't act against our interests in a lot of cases.

if you have some examples of irrational behavior though, please do share (and not irrational from our point of view). not talk, but actual action.