Pre Draft Thread 2.0

[Chief X_Phackter]

Originally Posted by Monkeydad

So their net gain is:

Moved from 2021 #3 to 2021 #6
Picked up 2021 #102 (SF 3rd Round)
Moved back from 2021 #123 (MIA 4th Round) to 2021 #156 (PHI 5th Round)
Picked up 2023 1st from SF



Who would I pick at #6 if I were them?

Devonta Smith, WR Alabama.

He, Devante Parker and Will Fuller together would be insane and if Tua can't win with that WR group, he's the biggest bust of all time.

No way it's Devonte Smith. If they are going offense, and the first four picks are QBs which appears to be a great possibility, it has to be Ja'Marr Chase or Kyle Pitts.

[Chief X_Phackter]

Originally Posted by Ruhskins

It is, but history shows new coaches want their own guys. Also, despite the benching fiasco, Doug Pederson was the coach that wanted Hurts over Wentz. The Iggles fired him, and hired a new coach that has no allegiances to Hurts.

I guess best case scenario for them is that Hurts works out, but they don't have a great team, and their unwillingness to add an elite talent like Jamarr Chase at #6 makes me think that they are fine sucking it up this year and going for a top QB in 2022.

Yeah, but this is the year to get your "QB of the future", if you are not sold on Hurts. This year's crop projects to be much better than 2022s.

[sdskinsfan2001]

19: R1 P19 LB Micah Parsons - Penn State
51: R2 P19 S Richie Grant - Central Florida
74: R3 P10 CB Elijah Molden - Washington
82: R3 P18 LB Cameron McGrone - Michigan
124: R4 P19 RB Chuba Hubbard - Oklahoma State
163: R5 P19 WR Jonathan Adams - Arkansas State
244: R7 P16 G Robert Hainsey - Notre Dame
246: R7 P18 OT Jaylon Moore - Western Michigan

[Pervis_Griffith]

Originally Posted by sdskinsfan2001

19: R1 P19 LB Micah Parsons - Penn State
51: R2 P19 S Richie Grant - Central Florida
74: R3 P10 CB Elijah Molden - Washington
82: R3 P18 LB Cameron McGrone - Michigan
124: R4 P19 RB Chuba Hubbard - Oklahoma State
163: R5 P19 WR Jonathan Adams - Arkansas State
244: R7 P16 G Robert Hainsey - Notre Dame
246: R7 P18 OT Jaylon Moore - Western Michigan

Love Richie Grant. And Adams in round 5 is sneaky good.

Hubbard is good, but I'm not sold on him. Would rather go OT there, but I have no idea who was available for ya there.

[Scalper]

Pure BPA. What player sitting there is a probowler or all-pro or HOFer? Over a 10 year window, you will be good if every 1st round pick is a solid contributor. Reaching for need kills you, but you must also factor need in a bit.

Assuming no QB falls, I hope we take the best pure pass blocking LT. Not the one that can run block, but is okay in pass protection, the absolute best pure pass blocking LT with highest ceiling for pure pass blocking. That is a HUGE long-term hole to fill. Barring that, again assuming no QB there, I would still love to get a true #1 WR and have him under contract 5 years, total package with size, speed, quickness, etc.

What we should not do is reach for TE, MLB, FS. However, there are some highly rated LBs that may be sitting there, and I think this is where FO is leaning. A good GM would certainly take franchise LT over a LB unless edge rusher, but we have edge covered.

[Scalper]

You should be drafting for long term need, but going BPA. That is not a contradiction. Let's start by looking at depth chart. Not players we have, but players we would actually want on team for more than a year, after this year. Any one year player is in parenthesis (). Long term player written normally. Player ideally replaced in brackets []. One could obviously debate lower roster spots.

QB
(Fitz)
Hein - Backup at minimum, is on cheap 2 year deal
[Allen] - Allen is average at absolute best.
We need 2 QBs long term. We must draft at least 1 this year.

OL
(Lucas) - His contract expires after this year and he will be 31 in 2022.
(Moses) - He is 30 start of this season. Contract runs through 2022 but he can be cut after this year 0 dead money. He is good but not great and still often gets absolutely toasted in pass coverage. Scherff makes him look much, much better. I don't hate him, but nor do I think a 31 year old RT who doesn't excel in pass blocking is worth $10M a year.
Charles - 25, 3 years left on rookie deal, probably not going anywhere unless injured again.
[(Sharpe)] - Worst signing of FA, can't imagine we sign him if Christian had developed.
[(Christian)] - Last year of rookie deal. Maybe he beats out Sharpe, but the light hasn't come on, time to move on after this year anyway.
The only T we have that you would honestly want long term is Charles, and he is a total unknown. Given that LT keeps your QB alive, and Fitz is old enough to need carbon dating, LT should be absolute priority if it coincides with BPA in round 1 or 2. If Lucas goes down, and we haven't drafted a franchise LT, our QB probably will go down sometime this season as well.
We must draft at least 1 T, ideally a LT.

G
(Scherff) - $18M for the lowest leverage position out of entire starting 22 is incredibly dumb, but that's way previous regime built our roster. I think you could get 75% of production Scherff provides, especially factoring in games missed, for $15-17M less from a rookie or FA. Scherff is on tag, thus parenthesis, looks like FO will be dumb enough to sign him to long-term deal for $16M+ a year. 9% of salary cap on a RG. WTF.
Schweitzer - Only player seemingly certain to be here past this year at G. Under contract this year next for $11M total.
Martin - Through 2022 on rookie deal. Has been average nothing more.
(Larsen) - C who can swing to G, on one year deal.
We probably don't need to draft a G this year, though one could certainly replace Martin or even Larsen.

C
Roullier - Under contract through 2024 at a contract averaging $10M+.
Ismael - Rookie contract through 2023.
(Larsen) - 1 year $1M deal essentially, can also backup C.
FO got this one right. Rather have 4Ts and 3Cs and 2-3Gs and have Ts or Cs swing to G than G swinging to C or T. Who knows if all three make roster, but little need for C.

WR
McL - Rookie deal runs through 2022. Biggest bargain on team by far.
Samuel - 3 year deal through 2023 averaging $11.5M with 2 addl. voidable years and $4.8M dead cap if he is not extended (gimmick to get cap number low this year, mortgaging future).
Golden - Rookie contract through 2023. Barring another injury not going anywhere.
(Humphries) - Signed 1 year deal amount undisclosed.
Harmon - Under contract through 2022. May be more expendable than people think, 6th round pick who can't stay healthy and produce consistently, but have him finishing out rookie deal. You could do worse as 5th or 6th WR.
(Cam Sims) - 1 year $2M deal. With his size, if he plays consistently he'll command more as FA than we can pay, if he doesn't he's gone, so gone either way probably.
Lot of potential here, but outside of McL, lot of unrealized potential as well, inconsistency due to injury or other factors. Would not surprise me at all if we drafted a WR with top-4 picks, but we have the luxury of standing pat. Drafting a stud WR next year makes a lot more sense as we just let Humphries and Sims walk, but there is honestly only one consistently proven performer, McL. Problem is we don't need another small speedster or big long-strider, we need a true #1 with size and speed, so drafting a later round WR just fills roster with more guys like what we already have.

TE
(Thomas) - In last year of contract. Be 31 next year.
Rest of roster just a bunch of guys.
[Moss] - Under rookie contract through 2022. If you look past the name, not much production. Picked him simply because of name and because no one else on roster looks great.
You could argue any one of nobodies on our roster could be a good 3rd blocking TE, but no one else has truly flashed. You can see why FO supposedly went after Henry, and also why they wisely wouldn't bid higher (he is Reed 2.0 health wise and huge contracts to above average TEs dumb).
Horrible draft for TEs, but we have to pick at least 1. You could make an argument for 2 TEs drafted, but only if better than Moss or other scrubs on roster. Maybe you resign Thomas next year (low mileage for age) or draft a TE higher in a year with hopefully more talent at position. Ignoring leverage of position, this is most glaring need on O. We have no viable starter or obvious potential viable starter under contract in 2022. With leverage of position factored in, this 3rd greatest need on O, behind QB and LT, again from a long-term perspective (which is what draft should be about).

RB
Gibson - Under rookie deal 3 more years through 2023. Only RB that you can absolutely say should be on roster long term.
(McKissic) - Current contract ends after this year. Solid but hardly spectacular backup with zero ability to hit the big play
(Barber) - Current contract ends after this year. Solid but spectacular backup with zero ability to hit the big play. Yes that repeat was intentional.
(Miller) - One year deal. Unlike McK and Barber, Miller at least had some elite talent including speed and is a proven starter, but whether he still has it at 30 after all the mileage. . . Could do worse for 3rd RB
Rest of guys just a bunch of guys, and even all RBs except Gibson just a bunch of guys. Can't help but think of Chiefs who find blazing fast RBs later in draft all the time. We desperately need a RB that can take it to the house with speed to truly threaten Ds. Which brings us to. . .
[Love] - Under rookie contract through 2022. Not much production for 4th round pick. Blazing fast, but doesn't seem like will ever stay healthy. You'd love to see him stay healthy and be one of our RBs but doubtful.
We struggled massively to run the ball against better teams when it counted last year. You can pass first to establish run at times, but teams that win championships can pound the rock when it counts. If Gibson goes down we are HOSED and it will be another brutal season of marginal production in running game. Any RB can go down given pounding position takes. This is a position where we could desperately use an infusion of talent behind Gibson. In theory, next year might be better time to do it when 3 FAs walk, but. . . It bears repeating that if Gibson goes down our playoff hopes significantly vanish. We have no one else remotely explosive that scares Ds or can create production without awesome blocking, which is why we sputtered massively against virtually every good team we played last year. Not wild about investing high picks at RB, 3rd round or above, because giving RBs big deals (resigning after rookie deal) usually makes no sense in NFL as structured today. But if there is a good RB 4th or 5th round perhaps consider it.

###

So in some theoretical universe where we had unlimited draft picks we would do following:

2 QBs, one early, one late, at least one makes roster, try and stash other on practice squad. Until you have most important position solved long term, keep drafting. So glad we are not dumb like SF and still making RGIII type trades. No trading up.

1 WR, a stud #1 with one of first four picks.

2 LTs, one a franchise LT, another later round stash practice squad for next year.

1 G, either depth or in smarter world let Scherff walk.

3 TEs. Hope 2 pan out, if all three do stash 1 on practice squad.

3 RBs. 2 make roster, one PS.

###

We don't have infinite draft picks. Our need chart adjusted for position leverage would be:

QB,LT,TE,WR,RB,G,C

We have to pick 1 QB this draft to have long term developmental option besides Heinecke. Doesn't have to be early pick, but there has to be one QB in this draft somewhere we like and bring in.

We have to pick at least one LT in this draft. We have to pick at least one TE in this draft. These are needs based on contracts expiring, lack of depth.

I think these are only 3 positions we absolutely have to draft.

We could draft a true #1WR early, but simply adding another late-round depth player similar to what we have probably doesn't make sense. Letting FAs walk after this year and drafting #1WR next year probably makes more sense, but the board often dictates. . .

We could also draft a RB rounds 4-6. This is probably a bigger need than WR, but put WR first because higher leverage and our need at WR is a higher-round pick given that we have lots of late round guys.

We could pick a 2nd TE as well. 2 TEs could easily make our roster, but again, what is point of late round TE similar to what we have unless you find a gem?

We could go without a C or G in this draft.

We easily need 3-5 picks on DE, so our needs drastically outweigh picks. We have to pick a QB,LT,TE, and could easily justify picking a RB and 2nd TE. Thus our approach should be to trade down as much as we can.

[Chico23231]

^
First, I agree with getting your needs together going into a draft...but BPA approach when your slot arrives.

With the OL, the versatility of Ismel and Charles needs to be noted. Both can play guard and both best fit could be there. C,G is set imo.

Your on the right path with RB. I think we could use another guy, but not a great RB draft. IMO, 4-7 round selection

TE and WR just depends on how the draft falls. Finding an TE in the 2-3 round would be ideal

The spots we should focus draft exiting free agency

1.LB
2.TE
3.Tackle

Other:


4.WR
5.Free Safety
6.CB...slot versatility
7.RB

[simbosargos75]

Originally Posted by Monkeydad

So their net gain is:

Moved from 2021 #3 to 2021 #6
Picked up 2021 #102 (SF 3rd Round)
Moved back from 2021 #123 (MIA 4th Round) to 2021 #156 (PHI 5th Round)
Picked up 2023 1st from SF



Who would I pick at #6 if I were them?

Devonta Smith, WR Alabama.

He, Devante Parker and Will Fuller together would be insane and if Tua can't win with that WR group, he's the biggest bust of all time.

And most likely moved up in the 2022 draft significantly.

[Chico23231]

ESPN's John Keim reports the Washington Football Team will "strongly consider" taking a quarterback in the 2021 NFL Draft.

The team, according to Ryan Fitzpatrick himself, did not sign the 38-year-old journeyman as the unquestioned Week 1 starter. With the No. 19 pick, Washington could have a shot at Kellen Mond out of Texas A&M or Florida's Kyle Trask. That is, of course, unless Washington trades up to have a shot at one of the top-five QBs off the board. For now, Fitzpatrick is the likely starter while Taylor Heinicke could see playing time if Fitz struggles in 2021.

[skinsfaninok]

I Just don't see a QB falling to 19, they would have to trade up most likely

[MTK]

Originally Posted by skinsfaninok

I Just don't see a QB falling to 19, they would have to trade up most likely

Seems unlikely we'd have the ammo to trade into the top 5 or 10, so most likely we could trade up to 12-15 or so if someone fell there.

[skinsfaninok]

Originally Posted by MTK

Seems unlikely we'd have the ammo to trade into the top 5 or 10, so most likely we could trade up to 12-15 or so if someone fell there.

One thing Ron has said in the past is he doesn't like to lose draft stock.. Now if a QB they love is there in the teens I'm sure he'd reconsider that. I'm more of a fan of drafting Mond in the 3rd or Mills and letting Fitz run the show in 2021

[skinsfaninok]

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles...nfBrxfc36uk2fg

I don't see us trading up for Jones but they have it here

[Chico23231]

These are the guys who if they slide will be BPA I want us to grab:

LB Michah Parson
WR Smith
WR Waddle
CB Surtain

Those are the no brainers, if they are there you take and I think it’s not likely but possible one may fall

I know Tackle is a need, but IMO the best value there is 2nd-3rd round. I see a lot of name in the first round who kinda meh.

[MTK]

Man, Parsons would be a total stud in this D. I'd consider moving up to get him.