Portis and the Cap 101

[CrazyCanuck]

Portis and the Cap 101

I've seen a lot of posts about Portis and the cap implications. I've been following the Skins cap situation closely and I figured it might be a good idea to analyze Portis' contract from a cap perspective to see what it really means. These numbers are pure speculation but I figure I'm at least in the ballpark.

Based on other long-term contracts handed out by Snyder (ie Arrington, Coles) here's what I expect the Portis deal to look like from a cap perspective (in 000s):

(sorry for the layout)

Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Salary $455 $1,500 $1,500 $3,000 $4,000 $7,000 $8,000 $8,000
S.Bonus $2,167 $2,167 $2,167 $2,167 $2,167 $2,167 $- $-
R.Bonus $800 $800 $800 $800 $800 (starts in 2007)

Cap Hit $2,622 $3,667 $3,667 $5,967 $6,967 $9,967 $8,800 $8,800

Let's take a closer look.

- The signing bonus is said to be $17M tiered. Similar to Lav and Lavar, I expect around $13M up front and another $4M roster bonus in 2007. The $13M is split over the first 6 years (max for'04). The $4M would kick in in 2007 and be split over the final 5 years of the contract.

- The salaries add up to $33.5M. The signing bonus is $13M up front and $4M
later on, for a grand total of $50.5M as announced.

- The cap hit stays under $4M for the first 3 years, which would seem like
a very fair number assuming Portis is really Portis.

- In 2007 the Skins will face a decision when the $4M roster bonus kicks
in. Portis will be a $6M cap hit in 2007 and $7M in 2008. If he is still a
top RB the Skins will probably make a 2 year commitment to him and keep him
for those 2 years. If not they would trade him or cut him prior to 2007 and
take a $6.5M cap hit***.

- In 2009 Portis' cap hit jumps to $10M and the Skins will almost surely
not keep him. They will trade him or release him and take a cap hit of
$4.5M*** prior to 2009.

***: The cap hit when a player is released can be spread over 2 years if he
is cut/traded after June 1st.

- In 2007 or 2009 it is possible the 2 sides would renegotiate to extend
the contract and/or make it more cap friendly.

So what is this contract really worth?

From the Skins' cap perspective:

- It is basically a 3 year $10M contract, with a $6.5M cap hit*** buyout
clause in 2007...or...it is a 5 year $23M contract, with a $4.5M cap hit***
buyout clause in 2009.

From Portis' perspective:

- He'll almost surely be here for 3 years, during which time he will have
earned his $13M SB plus $3.5M in salary, for a total of 3 years $16.5M.

- If the Skins keep him for 2007 and 2008 he will earn an additional $4M
roster bonus and another $7M in salary, for a total of 2 years $11M. This
would bring the total contract to 5 years $27.5M, which ironically is about
the same as Arrington's "real" contract.

Summary

- Even though the numbers are best estimates, I think they give us a pretty good view of what this guy is really costing us. IMO, this is a good contract for the Redskins from a cap perspective, but that's not the point. The point is to give us all a better understanding of what we're arguing about in the first place.

Sorry for the long post!

GO SKINS